European Central Bank Raises Rates for the First Time in 11 Years

On Thursday, the European Central
Bank (ECB) raised interest rates in the eurozone for the first time in 11
years, as high and rising inflation becomes central bankers’ primary
concern.
The 50 basis points rate hike is higher
than analysts had expected, and marks a departure from the zero-interest rate
environment the EU has been in since 2016.
The bank also said that, at the Governing
Council’s upcoming meetings, further “normalization of interest rates will be
appropriate.”
“The frontloading today of the exit from
negative interest rates allows the Governing Council to make a transition to a
meeting-by-meeting approach to interest rate decisions,” they added.
For now, the interest rate on the main
refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility
and the deposit facility will be increased to 0.50%, 0.75%, and 0.00%,
respectively, with effect from 27 July 2022.
Commenting ahead of the rate hike, analysts
at Deutsche Bank said in a note to clients cited by CNBC
that unpublished inflation expectations data may have made ECB officials
worried. As a result, a 50-basis point hike has been on the table recently,
they wrote.
Moreover, the analysts also pointed to the
so-called anti fragmentation instrument that ECB President Christine Lagarde
has been focused on recently, saying a 50-point hike would help in negotiating
the details of such a tool.
The anti-fragmentation instrument was also
pointed to by others, with Dirk Schumacher of financial
researcher Natixis writing in a note that Lagarde is likely
to stress the “temporary nature” of such an instrument.
“[…] she will also underline the ECB’s
determination to secure the integrity of the monetary union, thereby trying to
evoke a ‘whatever it takes’ spirit,” Schumacher wrote, adding that the fine
line Lagarde needs to walk “increases the risk of a ‘misunderstanding’ and
erratic market moves.”
“Anti-fragmentation” refers to work the ECB
does to prevent differences in market conditions for government bonds across
the eurozone from getting too large. The design of the anti-fragmentation tool
is subject to intense negotiations within the ECB’s 25-member Governing
Council.
The rate hike comes as the eurozone
grapples with its worst inflation ever. Earlier this
week, Eurostat published fresh data that showed annual
inflation reached 8.6% in June. The ECB’s inflation target is 2%. The central
bank hopes inflation will reach its target in the “medium-term.”
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